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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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